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Scenario:Scenarios re-run the full model on adjusted drivers — never scaled outputs.
ACTION NEEDED

Below your required return, and capital recovery depends entirely on an UNSECURED month-60 buyback — renegotiate terms and demand security before proceeding.

Indicative result — material assumptions remain unverified (0/4 diligence items confirmed). Complete the verification checklist in step 5 before circulating this case.

Decision detailoperational, investment and bankability sub-verdicts behind the headline

  • CAUTIONInvestment verdict: Renegotiate — below your 12% required return (NPV -₹3.13 L, IRR 9.12%). Ask for a higher guarantee, lower entry price, or stronger terminal terms.
  • OKOperational verdict: Underlying station is profitable over the term (₹63.86 L operating cash).
  • ACTION NEEDEDKey dependency: Capital recovery depends ENTIRELY on the month-60 buyback (36% of total cash). Do not sign without security for it (escrow, bank guarantee, or deposit).
  • OKFranchisor capacity: Station cash funds everything promised to the investor 1.20x over.

Reconciliation passing means the arithmetic is consistent — it does not mean the investment is attractive. Judge those under their own headings.

Input validity

  • Indicative result — material assumptions remain unverified (0/4 diligence items confirmed in the verification checklist).

Investor attractiveness

  • NPV at the 12% required return is NEGATIVE (-₹3.13 L) — this deal is below your own hurdle rate. Renegotiate terms or lower the hurdle deliberately.
  • Annualized IRR (9.12%) is below the required return of 12%.
  • Monthly income alone never recovers the investment — payback (month 60) depends ENTIRELY on the terminal buyback being honoured.

Bankability & counterparty

  • Unsecured counterparty promise valued at 100% recovery: ₹19.00 L (36% of total cash) rests on the franchisor honouring the terminal payment with no security and no default risk assumed. Enter a default probability and/or security backing to see the credit-adjusted view.
Investment (incl. GST)
₹39.90 L
₹38.00 L + 5% GST
Monthly income (avg)
₹57,000
Cash yield 17.1% p.a.
Buyback (contractual)
₹19.00 L
50% of ₹38.00 L
Total cash received
₹53.20 L
₹34.20 L payouts + terminal
Net profit
₹13.30 L
Total ROI
33.33%
MOIC 1.333x
Annualized IRR (XIRR)
9.12%
Real (after 5% inflation): 3.92%
Payback (incl. terminal)
5 yr
From income alone: Not recovered · NPV @ 12%: -₹3.13 L

Monthly cash — franchisee

Cumulative investor cash & payback

Includes the terminal payment in the final month.

Assumption sources & disclaimers

  • Ministry of Power — Guidelines for Installation and Operation of EV Charging Infrastructure (2024) PCS supply tariff capped at Average Cost of Supply (ACoS) until 31 Mar 2028. Illustrative solar-hour tariff 0.7×ACoS, non-solar 1.3×ACoS. Service charge ceilings ₹3/₹4 per kWh (AC, solar/non-solar) and ₹11/₹13 per kWh (DC, solar/non-solar). Public-land revenue share reference ₹1/kWh. [verified]
  • Illustrative national ACoS reference (~₹7/kWh) Actual ACoS varies by state/DISCOM (~₹6–9/kWh). The state tariff order selected by the user must override this. [estimated]
  • TGERC FY 2026–27 Tariff Schedule — LT-IX EV charging stations LT-IX EV charging energy charge ₹6/kWh. The model's electricity-tariff input should be the LANDED cost per grid kWh (energy charge + fixed/demand charges + duty), which is typically above the bare energy charge — enter your DISCOM bill's effective rate. [verified]
  • Site-type utilization benchmarks (internal advisory estimates) Urban 15%, highway 12%, mall 18%, office 20%, fuel station 15%, fleet depot 35%, bus/truck hub 40%, destination 10% — internal advisory estimates, NOT measured industry data. Validate against local operating stations before relying on them. [estimated]
  • Reference franchise acceptance case (320 kW cluster DC) ₹38,00,000 ex-GST + 5% GST; 60-month term; ₹57,000/month minimum guarantee; 22,800 kWh/month threshold; ₹2.60/kWh excess-unit rate; 50% buyback after 5 years; maintenance included. [user_supplied]

Indicative model for preliminary discussion only. Projections are not guaranteed returns; only terms in a signed agreement are contractual. State/DISCOM tariff orders override policy defaults. GST treatment, subsidies and taxes require professional review. Full formulas, scenario multipliers and version history →

Want this verified against a real site?

Every figure here rests on assumptions you can edit. A site visit replaces them with measured traffic, a DISCOM load check and verified land status.

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